by Risk calculated on 25/05/2023 14:02:00
From Wards Auto: May U.S. light-vehicle sales expected to see biggest volume gain in 2023 (paid content). Brief excerpt:
Rising inventories, combined with pent-up demand, are sustaining growth primarily by keeping the long list of economic and price headwinds at bay, but demand may fall sharply at the end of the month – and in June – if a US debt ceiling deal remains elusive and spooks consumers further.
Note: When writing “biggest volume gain”, Wards is referring to the year-over-year gain since sales were particularly weak in May 2022.
Click on the graphic to enlarge the image.
This graph shows actual BEA sales (blue) and neighborhood forecasts for May (red).
Wards forecast of 15.3 million SAAR would be down 3.9% from last month and up 21.6% from a year ago.
Vehicle sales are generally a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing. This time, vehicle sales were further hampered by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.