With February industrial production (0% m/m vs +0.2% Bloomberg consensus), we have the following picture of key indicators tracked by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP from S&P Market Intelligence.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), 3/17 Bloomberg consensus (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing sales and trade in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue) and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2022Q4 2nd release via FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (née Macroeconomic Advisers) (press release dated 03/01/2023) and calculations by the author.
Weekly economic indicators (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) for data available through March 11 point to 0.96% year-on-year growth. GDPNow as of yesterday points to first-quarter growth of 3.2% q/t SAAR, while S&P Market Intelligence/formerly IHS Markit raised its trailing estimate to 0.6% (q/t SAAR), from – 0.5% a month ago.