by Risk calculated on 06/10/2022 14:16:00
At 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, the BLS will release the jobs report for September. The consensus is for 250,000 additional jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.7%.
There were 315,000 jobs added in August and the unemployment rate was 3.7%.
Click on the graphic to enlarge the image.
• First, in August there are 240,000 more jobs than in February 2020 (the month before the pandemic).
This graph shows the job losses since the start of the employment recession, in percentage. In August 2022, all jobs returned.
This does not include the preliminary benchmark review which showed there were 462,000 more jobs than originally reported in March 2022.
• ADP report: The ADP employment reportt showed that 208,000 private sector jobs were added in September. This is the second version of ADP’s new methodology, which suggests job gains in line with consensus expectations.
• ISM surveys: Note that ISM services are broadcast indices depending on the number of companies hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® Manufacturing Employment Index fell in September to 48.7%, from 54.2% last month. This would suggest 25,000 lost manufacturing jobs.
The ISM® index of employment in services rose in September to 53.0% from 50.2% last month. This would suggest services employment rose by 155,000 in September.
Combined, the ISM surveys suggest 130,000 jobs added in September (below the consensus forecast).
• Unemployment claims: The weekly claims report showed a decrease in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (including the 12th of the month) from 245,000 in August to 209,000 in September. This would generally suggest fewer layoffs in September than in August. In general, weekly claims were lower than expected in September.
• COVID: Regarding the pandemic, the number of daily cases during the reference week in September was around 70,000against 115,000 in August.
• IMPORTANT: Usually in September, about 1.2 million educators are hired at the start of the school year in some regions. This is seasonally corrected to around 0 (since it is expected). It’s unclear whether that many people will be hired this year – with an overall tight labor market – and that could skew the overall figure.
• Conclusion: The consensus is that job growth will slow to 250,000 jobs added in September. The ADP report was in line with expectations and the weekly complaints were positive. However, it seems likely that education will disappoint seasonally adjusted, so I expect employment numbers to be at or below consensus forecasts.