by Risk calculated on 03/29/2023 15:01:00
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the coincident indices for all 50 states for January 2023. Over the past three months, indices have risen in all 50 states, for a three-month spread index of 100. Additionally, over the past month, indices rose in 49 states and were flat in one state, for a one-month release index of 98. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed also developed an index similar coincidence for the entire United States. The US Philadelphia Fed index has risen 1.0% over the past three months and 0.4% in January.
Note: These are coincident indices constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions into a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each index coincide are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, unemployment rate, and wage and salary payments. deflated by the consumer price index (US city average). The trend of each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so the long-term growth of the state’s index is the long-term growth of its GDP.
Click on the map for a larger image.
Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident state indicators. This the map was all red at the worst of the pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.
The map is all positive on a three month basis.
And here’s a graph of the number of states with an up month of activity according to the Philly Fed.
In January, 50 states had growing activity, including minor increases.