Workers manufacture charging equipment for new energy vehicles at a workshop of Shandong Dingsheng Electric Equipment in Zaozhuang, east China’s Shandong Province.
Edition of the future | Edition of the future | Getty Images
Now that China has ended its strict Covid controls, the economy could return to growth of over 5%.
the last of china factory data marked the highest reading in nearly eleven years, indicating further recovery to come.
Beijing has set itself an ambitious target of around 5.5% growth for 2022. But Covid controls and the real estate crisis have weighed heavily. China’s GDP grew only 3% last year.
On Sunday, the Chinese government is expected to announce a GDP growth target of around or above 5% for the year.
“This year, a likely rebound in the property market (as well as the exit from its ‘zero Covid’ policy) will help China’s GDP growth improve,” Societe Generale said.
The bank is the most optimistic of the companies polled by CNBC, with a GDP growth forecast of 5.8%.
Here is the full list of predictions:
The average estimate among economists is slightly above the expected official target, at 5.24%, according to CNBC’s analysis.
Among the more bearish calls is Oxford Economics, with a forecast of 4.5%.
“The tailwinds of reopening mean authorities may not see it necessary[y] do the same (or enact a massive stimulus package similar to past easing cycles), especially after a year when public finances were already under severe strain,” Louise Loo, the company’s chief economist, said in a statement. note.
Correction: This story has been updated to reflect the latest forecast from BNP Paribas.