National review“The whole concept of polling depends on having a defined population from which one can take a random sample and obtain a generally representative snapshot. Pre-election polls have no existing population – the election has no hasn’t happened yet and voting isn’t mandatory in the United States, so we just don’t have a population that has voted until all polling places are closed on Election Day.
“We can’t fix that. The population of voters will never exist before the election. Expecting polls to be able to consistently and accurately predict an election takes more than is statistically and theoretically possible. Yes, we (the pollsters) have a lot of information about past elections to help us understand. But polling a representative sample of the entire American adult population has become more difficult in recent decades. Over the past two election cycles, we’ve seen candidates activate people who don’t typically vote, so is it really surprising that horse racing polling error rates have increased? »