by Risk calculated on 23/09/2022 16:09:00
From Wards Auto: Tracking September U.S. Light Vehicle Sales to a 5-Month High (paid content). Brief excerpt:
“Despite the amount of pent-up demand waiting to be tapped, without an increase in incentives combined with dealerships selling fewer vehicles above list price, the diminishing availability of affordable deals on dealer lots will lead to a shift in sales gains versus expected inventory growth.”
Click on the graphic to enlarge the image.
This graph shows actual BEA sales (blue) and neighborhood forecasts for September (red).
Wards forecast of 13.7 million SAAR would be mostly up 4% from last month and 11% from a year ago (sales began to falter in mid-2021, due supply chain issues).
Vehicle sales are typically a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy (far behind the accommodation). However, this time vehicle sales have been suppressed by supply chain issues and are unlikely to be significantly affected by higher interest rates.