by Risk calculated on 09/26/2022 09:02:00
Active inventory increased for the 2nd week in a row, increasing 0.9% last week, and reached a new high for the year. Here are the inventory changes for the same week for the past four years:
2022: +4.9,000
2021: -3.7,000
2020: -5.2,000
Click on the graphic to enlarge the image.
This inventory chart is courtesy of Search Violas.
As of September 23, inventories stood at 557,000 (7-day average), down from 552,000 the previous week. Inventories rose 0.9% from the previous week.
Inventory is still historically low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 28.7% from 433,000, but compared to the same week in 2020, inventory is down 1.9% from 568,000. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 42.2% from 963,000.
1. The seasonal trough (it happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year over year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up from two years ago (currently down 1.9% according to Altos)
4. Inventory up from 2019 (currently down 42.2%).
Here is a graph of the change in stocks compared to 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4).
The blue line represents year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and the dotted purple is compared to 2019.
Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was shrinking year-round, so the two-year comparison will become easier year-round.
Based on recent inventory changes, my current estimate is that inventory will be up from 2020 in the fourth quarter of this year.
A key will be if inventory increases in the fall of this year. Inventories rose slightly in September.