OPINION – It should be crystal clear: North Korea possesses nuclear weapons not just for defensive deterrence but, according to Kim Jong-un, to respond to any perceived threat to North Korea and its leaders.
Kim made these comments on April 25e military parade in Pyongyang, celebrating the 90e anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army. Kim then doubled down on April 30, as North Korean state media reported, warning that Pyongyang could preemptively use its nuclear weapons to counter hostile forces.
This is a significant paradigm shift for North Korea. During almost thirty years of negotiations with North Korea, their message was consistent: their nuclear weapons were for deterrence, for self-defense, never to be used against the United States or any other country. Kim’s recent statements make it abundantly clear that their nuclear weapons could be used for offensive purposes, including their preventive use against any perceived threat.
Kim sends a message to the United States and South Korea: the self-imposed moratorium on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and nuclear testing is over, and we will build more nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them to the United States. . The 13 missiles launched this year included the gigantic Hwasong-17, capable of reaching the whole of the United States, hypersonic ballistic missiles potentially capable of defeating missile defenses, short-range solid fuel and cruise missiles that threaten South Korea and Japan, and ballistic missiles launched by submarines. This is the overt part of North Korea’s nuclear program. What we don’t see is the continued production of fissile material for the nuclear weapons that these missiles are capable of carrying.
It is likely that the North will carry out its seventh nuclear test in the coming weeks. The last test took place in 2017, assessed as a successful thermonuclear test. And work continues on the Punggye-ri nuclear test site which was closed and partially dismantled in 2018, during the Trump-Kim summits and North Korea’s goodwill gesture to refrain from testing. nuclear and ICBM. That hasn’t stopped the North from testing short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, however, an existential threat to our allies in South Korea and Japan and to Guam.
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May 10e, President-elect Yoon Suk-Yeol will be sworn in as South Korea’s new president, replacing Moon Jae-in. Yoon, a conservative member of the People Power Party, narrowly beat his liberal Democratic Party opponent Lee Jae-Myung. Yoon has made it clear that he will focus on a close strategic alliance with the United States and improving relations with Japan. The message to North Korea is equally clear: complete and verifiable denuclearization is the goal and sanctions should not be lifted until the North has made progress on denuclearization. No doubt Yoon’s comment about a pre-emptive strike when the South detects signs of a (missile) launch from the North also caught Pyongyang’s attention. Kim Jong-un’s powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, had criticized South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook in early April for speaking publicly about preemptive strikes against North Korea, carried out after North Korea launched the Hwasong-17 on 24 March, ending the Northern War. four-year moratorium on ICBM launches.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and the ongoing war in Ukraine caught Kim Jong-un’s attention. In 1994, Ukraine ceded more than 1,900 nuclear warheads to Russia, in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. This agreement, the Budapest memorandum on security guarantees, obviously did not prevent Russia from invading and annexing Crimea in 2014 and seizing part of the southeastern region of Donbass in Ukraine. That certainly hasn’t stopped Russia from invading and warring with Ukraine in 2022, an independent, sovereign country that has voluntarily given up its nuclear weapons for so-called security guarantees – a commitment that Russia has brazenly ignored.
So, assuming we bring North Korea back to the negotiating table, it will be much harder to convince Pyongyang that giving up its nuclear weapons will make North Korea safer and more prosperous. Our negotiators will need to be flexible and creative, in an effort to build confidence that a path to normal relations with the United States will provide North Korea with security guarantees and development opportunities. economic that a heavily sanctioned North Korea with nuclear weapons will offer not to have. But that’s still a long way off, especially now, when all indications are that North Korea has abandoned negotiations and is determined to build more nuclear weapons and remain committed to China and Russia.
China’s special representative for the Korean Peninsula, Ambassador Liu Xiaoming, arrived in Seoul on Sunday for meetings with officials from the Moon Jae-in government and incoming administration Yoon Suk-yeol. In an impromptu press conference, Liu said the United States and North Korea are responsible for resolving the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula, and China and South Korea are important partners cooperation in the search for a political solution.
Hopefully, in private talks in Seoul, Liu also spoke about China’s efforts to get North Korea to resume unconditional negotiations with the United States and refrain from further missile and nuclear tests. A China that supplies North Korea with over 90% of its crude oil and petroleum products and over 90% of its foreign trade has the means to succeed – if it tries.
Ignoring nuclear developments with North Korea is not an option. Like it or not, North Korea is a priority issue that needs to be addressed – by China, the United States, South Korea, Japan and the international community. When a nuclear-armed country like Russia puts its nuclear forces on high alert, we are rightly concerned. When Kim Jong-un talks about the preemptive use of nuclear weapons, we should also be concerned.
This article by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joe DeTrani first appeared in The Washington Times
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