Editor’s note: David A.AndelmanCNN collaborator, twice winner of the Deadline Club Award, is Chevalier of the Legion of Honor, author of “A red line in the sand: diplomacy, strategy and the history of the wars that could still happen” and blogs about Andelman unleashed. He was previously correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. See more notice at CNN.
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It was the handshake heard around the world. Indeed, the OK between long-time enemies Saudi Arabia and Iran to bury the hatchet and restore diplomatic relations after years of confrontation and religious hostility must inevitably take a back seat and the peacemaker who brokered this historical pact.
Suddenly, Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his first major initiative just hours after demand an unprecedented third term in office, has shown his ability to act as a peacemaker for one of the most toxic relationships in a strategically critical and often volatile region. The role of mediator is one that Xi has clearly coveted for some time, most recently in his offer to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, viewed with the greatest skepticism by Ukraine and most of its Western allies. Friday’s deal was an aggressive move by China, but it could pay off.
China has secured its status as a close friend and reliable partner of two of the world’s major oil producers. Iran is also prospectively the the newest nuclear power in the worldwhile the United States has faithfully guaranteed Saudi Arabia’s security for generations. so far.
Both are nations vital to China’s own strategic interests – particularly its need for reliable sources of oil as a counterweight to Russian supplies which could prove increasingly problematic if the Ukraine conflict continues unabated. China imports oil at a rate of a few 10 million barrels per dayaccording to official Chinese data in tonnes estimated in barrels by Reuters columnist Asia Commodities and Energy Clyde Russella figure that is expected to rise this year as the Covid lockdowns are lifted.
Last year, according to three tanker trackers tracked by Reuters. At the same time, China found itself forced to compete with rival India for cheap Russian crude oil. New reliable sources from the Middle East could prove very attractive. In December, Xi paid his first visit to Saudi Arabia in almost seven years and oil was at the top of the agenda.
At the same time, China has long coveted a strong strategic position in the Middle East and Gulf regions. Five years ago he under pressure Djibouti authorizes a Chinese naval installation which dominates the entrance to the Red Sea to be built on its shore, just upstream from the large American installation of Camp Lemonnier. But a foothold on the continent of the Middle East has so far eluded him, as Russia has extended its own military installations with air and naval installations in Syria.
But a number of questions remain. What is the likelihood, now, of the Saudi normalization of relations with Israel? In search of such a gesture, the Saudis were negotiate with Brett McGurk, National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, and Amos Hochstein, the White House’s top aide for global energy. In January, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that given the recent discovery of indigenous uranium reserves, the Kingdom intended to advance its plans to develop an initial nuclear fuel cycle and was seeking US input (potentially a first step towards a nuclear weapon). The Saudis have also been eager to receive pledges resume arms transfers which had been blocked due to its human rights record and refusal to support Ukraine in its war against Russia, and for increased security guarantees. A rapprochement with Iran, despite his ambition to destroy the State of Israel and Israel’s intention to pulverize any Iranian nuclear weapon program, might be seen as a more feasible or attractive course of action for the Saudis.
At the same time, the proxy civil war in Yemen is raging, where Saudi-backed government forces have fought for more than eight years to a debilitating and bloody confrontation with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The United States has been particularly concerned with bringing a lasting end to hostilities. The first major initiative taken by President Joe Biden within days of taking office was an announcement that Washington would no longer support the Saudi war effort there. Yet the war continued to drag on. This new China-brokered deal is the first potential breakthrough to end hostilities — and without any US involvement.
A gradual decline in American influence in the region has been evident for some time. Last July, Biden shared a highly publicized punch with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, only to turn into a slap in the face three months later when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) announcement it would cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day – engineered, by most accounts, by Saudi Arabia and Russia to keep oil prices high. With Friday’s announcement in Beijing, Saudi Arabia appears to have cast its fate increasingly defiantly at China and its close friend Russia. Saudi Arabia never condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nor has Russia condemned the Saudi proxy war in Yemen.
So what should the American position be in all of this? Obviously, any end to hostilities or even a truce between the two main and virulent religious currents of Islam – the Sunnis (majority in Saudi Arabia) and the Shiites (majority in Iran) – should be good news.
He should light a fire under Israel to contain his more expansionist impulses and show some good will towards the Palestinians – perhaps at this point the only action that could lure Saudi Arabia into a comparable deal with Israel, even negotiated by the United States.
That Friday’s deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia was reached with the good offices of China is most worrying but should in no way distract from US efforts to contain the ambitious expansion of the China. The big surprise is that China seems to have stepped in to fill the void left by US hesitation in the Middle East. But on Monday, Biden is should announce a $100 billion deal with Britain to build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia – a vital step to counter China’s growing dominance of the Pacific seas.
With this deal, the stakes have only escalated. China, along with Saudi Arabia and Iran, seem determined to expand their reach and power in their respective regions, making containment an increasingly appropriate goal for the United States.