Monthly PCE inflation was 0.2% below consensus (core 0.1% below).
Figure 1: Monthly annualized PCE inflation (blue), base PCE (tan), reduced PCE (red) and instant PCE (T=12, a=4) (green). The NBER has defined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Source: BEA, Dallas Fed via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.
PCE inflation reduced instantaneously and annualized to 4%; core at 3.7%.