Higher than the previous NBER peak (2020M02):
Figure 1: Average hourly earnings in total non-agricultural private sector payroll (blue, left log scale) and in leisure and hospitality services (tan, right log scale), for production workers and non-farmers. supervisors, in 1982-$84. The NBER has defined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.
As is well known, the CPI is biased upwards (for a number of reasons, including being a Laspeyres index, albeit less over time). I show the chained version of the CPI from Figure 1 below (where I seasonally adjusted the log series using X13).
Figure 2: Average hourly earnings in total non-agricultural private sector payroll (blue, left log scale) and in leisure and hospitality services (tan, right log scale), for production workers and non-farmers. supervisors, in 1999M12$. The NBER has defined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Author’s seasonally adjusted chained CPI using X13. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.
Finally, consider real wages deflated by the HICP. The HICP includes rural weights in the calculation of the price index. Moreover, it does not include an equivalent of the “Owner’s Equivalent Rent” component.
Figure 3: Average hourly earnings in total nonfarm private sector payroll (blue, left log scale) and in recreation and hospitality services (tan, right log scale), for production and non-farm workers. supervisors, in 2015 dollars. The NBER has defined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Author’s seasonally adjusted chained CPI using X13. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.
Finally, what are the usual median real weekly earnings of full-time workers, as reported by the Current Population Survey?
Figure 4: Median usual weekly earnings for full-time employees, in 1982-$84 (in blue, on a logarithmic scale). The NBER has defined peak to trough recession dates. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER.
In Q1 2023, they are roughly on par with the level of the previous NBER peak in Q4 2019. Note that when looking at the full sample of workers, the composition effects are such that the earnings of those employed typically increase during recessions.