Sketch planes write my theory of unintended consequences:
People are complicated. Life is complicated. Ecosystems are complicated. Alex Tabarrok writes, “The law of unintended consequences is what happens when a simple system tries to regulate a complex system.” It happens so often in any type of government program, regulation, law, or attempt to control something within a complex system with relatively simple action. Things are going to happen that we did not foresee.
Examples abound:
- A wildfire suppression policy that causes even bigger fires.
- An attempt in Bogotá to reduce traffic by limiting who could drive each day based on license plates led to people circumventing the policy by buying more cars.
- More open workplaces that encourage people to behave more privately.
- Elimination of predators which leads to the proliferation of grazing animals and a reduction in diversity.
- The effects of literally any dam built anywhere.
- What happens when you change software.
- Paths of Desire.
- The Streisand Effect.
- Or social distancing policies that cause outdoor natural spaces to be packed with people on weekends.
- And so on.
Often, like some of them, the result can be the opposite of what you intended, known as the cobra effect.
Controlling complex systems is difficult.
Thanks to Bruce Howard for supporting this one.
The post office The Law of Unintended Consequences appeared first on marginal REVOLUTION.