Space enthusiast, eccentric billionaire and social media provocateur Elon Musk rocked the Twitterverse yesterday with a poll regarding a possible path to peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Musk’s suggested solution with a corresponding poll drew the attention and anger of Ukrainians and Ukraine supporters around the world, with one specific individual choosing very colorful language in his responses.
So should we be surprised by Mr. Musk’s tweet? I do not think so.
Musk has long believed that Twitter is the virtual international public square, allowing people to express themselves on various topics. So why should the war in Ukraine be treated differently?
Peace Ukraine-Russia:
– Redo the elections of the annexed regions under the supervision of the UN. Russia leaves if that is the will of the people.
– Crimea is officially part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
– Crimean water supply assured.
– Ukraine remains neutral.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022
Related: Ukrainian MP is convinced that a nuclear war is imminent
The poll that sparked outrage
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Elon Musk’s original tweet and poll proposed redoing the elections for the annexed regions now occupied by Russia, but under the supervision of United Nations observers. If the will of the people, as he said, is to stay with Ukraine, Russia must agree to leave the territories.
Perhaps what touched a lot of nerves was his next idea that Crimea should officially return to Russia. He completes the tweet by stating that Crimea’s water supply must be secured and that Ukraine should agree to remain a neutral party.
It’s no surprise that Ukrainian politicians and diplomats aren’t too supportive of Musk’s proposal. Just a few days ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a request for accelerated admission in NATO.
There is no indication that NATO will seriously consider his request. On the contrary, it shows that the current Ukrainian leaders have no interest in neutrality. The headline-grabbing response came from Ukrainian diplomat Andrij Melnyk who said in response to Musk’s idea“F**k off is my very diplomatic response to you @elonmusk.”
Ouch.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022
Related: Trump has seen enough: Offers to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine
Some reformulations
I have to give it to Mr. Musk; he could have easily deleted his original tweet and avoided the headache. Still, I think his embrace of free speech and his apparent lack of concern for how people see him means that thought probably never crossed his mind.
His initial poll had a 60/40 split, with the majority answering “no” to Mr Musk’s plan. After being pushed back, he rephrased the poll in a separate new tweet.
“Let’s try that then,” he posted. “The will of the people of Donbass and Crimea should decide whether they are part of Russia or Ukraine.”
Let’s try this then: the will of the inhabitants of Donbass and Crimea should decide whether they are part of Russia or Ukraine
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022
This poll had a different result, with 59% voting “Yes” versus 41% voting “No”. It’s interesting how just changing the way the question was phrased impacted the next set of results.
When the idea was floated that Russia should get something out of the conflict, there was expected to be quite overwhelming agreement that this was an unacceptable outcome. After all, Russia was the first aggressor to invade Ukraine.
When the idea was then floated that people should have the right to choose their destiny and that the ultimate decision should be respected regardless of that choice, people seem to favor this idea.
Unless, of course, all the votes are from bots, but that’s a totally different article.
Two Elon Musks?
Another social media master, President Zelenskyy, took part in the Twitter poll and asked users which “version” of Elon Musk they preferred, the one supporting Ukraine or the one supporting Russia. Again, the poll results were overwhelming for a Ukraine-supporting Musk.
Who @Elon Musk do you like more?
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 3, 2022
I’m not sure Elon’s Twitter polls imply he supports Russia, but more dialogue, if any, that supports peace is seemingly less achievable by the day. Musk later points out in a Twitter thread that while Russia may be on the ropes, it’s only a partial mobilization.
Russia makes a partial mobilization. They go to full war mobilization if Crimea is in danger. Death on both sides will be devastating.
Russia has >3 times the population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in an all-out war. If you care about the Ukrainian people, seek peace.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022
Consider that an all-out war with all means deployed is materializing. In this case, he postulates that a Ukrainian victory is “unlikely” and that if we care about the Ukrainians, we must seek peace. It’s hard to say Musk isn’t a Ukraine supporter when it’s thanks to his Starlink stations that the Internet was still operational at the start of the war, keeping Ukraine in the fight during the critical first weeks of the war.
So what does Musk represent?
peace at all costs
I don’t think Musk is a tool for the Russian government, nor do I think he doesn’t support Ukraine. I guess, like many people around the world, he believes that people should be free to live without fear of the government or their fellow human beings.
Last night he tweeted that the will of the people should decide which country they are part of, but most would choose to be part of Ukraine rather than Russia. So if so, what’s the harm?
The will of the people should decide if it is part of Russia or Ukraine, but Russia has invaded areas that would unequivocally choose to be part of Ukraine
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022
The reality is that it’s not just Russia that isn’t interested in negotiating a peace deal. Not so long ago, President Zelensky said they were “ready to agree on coexistence under equal, honest, dignified and fair conditions”.
Tracking puts the nail in that coffin when it announced that “We are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with another president of Russia.”
The likelihood of President Putin being removed from office or dying suddenly is quite slim. Nothing guarantees that his successor would be more docile than he was. So that leaves us in a stalemate in the world, with an everlasting conflict in Eastern Europe.
Freedom of speech
Musk’s tweet enraged many, including Mr. Melnyk, who tweeted “The only result is that now no Ukrainian will EVER buy your fucking Tesla bullshit. So good luck to you.
That may be true, but probably more, since it costs an arm and a leg to get replacement batteries for one of Musk’s Tesla vehicles. So while I don’t think Musk’s proposed path to peace would work in reality, it’s good that we have a channel to discuss these ideas.
In a SMS discovered thanks to the dispute with Twitter, Musk texted one of his associates, “Freedom of speech matters most when it’s someone you hate spouting off what you think are *** bulls.”
Just found this answer from Andrij Melnyk, Ambassador of Ukraine to Germany. I think he created a whole new category with his answer.😆 pic.twitter.com/25fJfjwjg8
— Sophie Perrin🇺🇸 (@SophiePerrin18) October 4, 2022
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