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US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told Congress on Wednesday that Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to pressure Taiwan and try to undermine American influence in coming years as he begins a third term as president.
As Beijing has stepped up its public criticism of the United States, Haines told the Senate Intelligence Committee that the intelligence community believes China still believes it “benefits the most by preventing a spiral of tensions and preserving peace.” stability of its relations with the United States”.
Haines and the other top intelligence officials – CIA Director William Burns, FBI Director Christopher Wray, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier and NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone — testified Wednesday before the Senate Intelligence Committee during the panel’s annual public global threats. audience.
Haines reviewed the global challenges facing the United States – from China and Russia to Iran and North Korea – as well as the risks related to cyber and technology as well as governments authoritarian.
China was among the senators’ top concerns during the hearing, where Haines and the other intelligence chiefs were pressed on everything from China’s global ambitions to the risks of TikTok and the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic to Wuhan, China.
Another key issue was Russia’s war in Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s long-term intentions, as Haines warned that Putin may dig in the long term because the Russian military cannot make territorial gains.
The US intelligence community believes Russia ‘probably doesn’t want a direct military conflict with US and NATO forces, but it’s possible it could happen’, according to the unclassified annual threat assessment report of the intelligence community released on Wednesday to which US intelligence chiefs testified.
“So far, Russian leaders have avoided taking steps that would extend the Ukrainian conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders, but the risk of escalation remains significant,” the report said.
Haines said in his testimony that the conflict in Ukraine had become a “crushing war of attrition in which neither side has a definitive military advantage”, but said Russian President Vladimir Putin would likely continue, perhaps for years.
“We do not expect the Russian military to recover sufficiently this year to make major territorial gains, but Putin most likely calculates that time is on his side, and that the war will be prolonged, including with potential pauses in fighting. , may be its best remaining path to ultimately securing Russia’s strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years,” Haines said.
Haines explained that Russia would likely not be able to maintain even its currently modest level of offensive operations in Ukraine without additional mandatory mobilization and third-party ammunition sources.
“They can turn entirely to holding and defending the territories they currently occupy,” Haines said.
Haines called Putin’s “nuclear slashes” an attempt to “dissuade the West from providing further support to Ukraine”.
“He will probably always remain convinced that Russia can eventually defeat Ukraine militarily and wants to prevent Western support from tipping the scales and forcing a conflict with NATO,” she said.
Yet as Russia deals with “significant damage” from its war in Ukraine, Moscow will become increasingly dependent on its nuclear, cyber and space capabilities, US intelligence agencies said in their report.
Heavy battlefield losses in Ukraine “have degraded Moscow’s conventional land and air capabilities and increased its dependence on nuclear weapons”, the report adds.
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence panel, argued that TikTok presents “a significant national security threat to the country of a type that we have not faced in the past.” .
The Chinese government could use TikTok to control the data of millions of people and leverage the video app to shape public opinion if China invades Taiwan, Wray told the panel on Wednesday.
Wray answered yes to questions from Rubio about whether TikTok would allow Beijing widespread control over data and a valuable tool of influence in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait.
“The most fundamental element that runs through each of these risks and threats that you mentioned that I think Americans need to understand is that something very sacred in our country – the difference between the private sector and the public sector – this is a line that is non-existent in the sense that the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] works,” Wray said.
Rubio and Senator Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine, also pressed intelligence chiefs on the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic in light of a new Energy Department assessment, done with little confidencethat the pandemic was likely the result of a lab leak in Wuhan.
Haines said the intelligence community is still seeking to gather additional information to determine the origin of the Covid-19 pandemic, but reiterated that there is no consensus at this stage among US intelligence agencies. .
“There is broad consensus in the intelligence community that the outbreak is not the result of a bioweapon or genetic engineering. What there is no consensus about is whether or not it was a lab leak, basically as Director Wray indicated, or a natural exposure to an infected animal,” Haines said.
Collins, a proponent of the lab leak theory, argued that the two theories should not carry equal weight.
“I just don’t understand why you keep arguing on behalf of the intelligence community that those are two equally plausible explanations. They just aren’t,” Collins said.
Senate Intelligence Chairman Mark Warner, a Democrat from Virginia, said the committee still had “unfinished business” with the investigation into processing of classified documentsreiterating that the committee still needed to see the documents taken from the offices and homes of President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence.
“I think speaking for everyone on both sides of the aisle of this committee, we still have unfinished business regarding classified documents that we need to see for this intelligence committee to effectively oversee its work on oversights. intelligence,” Warner said during his opening remarks at the Global Threats Committee’s annual hearing.
Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas, asked Haines and Wray why they hadn’t personally reviewed all of the classified documents found. They replied that they had both reviewed some of the documents, but not all of them.
Wray said he went through a “fairly meticulous list” of all the documents with “detailed information about the contents”, while noting that the FBI had teams experienced in mishandling classified document cases.
At the end of Wednesday’s public hearing, Warner and Rubio urged intelligence chiefs to give the committee access to classified documents so they can conduct proper oversight of the intelligence community’s damage assessment. on the poor management of classified documents.
“How can we check if you have assigned the correct risk rating and if the mitigation is appropriate? How can we do it if we don’t know what we’re talking about? Rubio said. “A special advocate cannot veto the ability of Congress to do their job. It just can’t happen. It will not happen. And so that will change the nature of the relationship between this committee.
Racially and ethnically motivated transnational extremists, including neo-Nazis and white supremacists, “remain the deadliest threat to American people and interests,” the intelligence community said in its new report.
The report says this “largely decentralized movement” poses “a significant threat to a number of American allies and partners through attacks and propaganda that advocates violence.”
“These actors increasingly seek to sow social divisions, support fascist-style governments and attack government institutions. The transnational and loose structure of RMVE organizations challenges local security services and creates resilience against disruption,” the report states, referring to racially or ethnically motivated violent extremist groups.
The report also raises concerns that a protracted conflict in Ukraine could provide racially and ethnically motivated foreign extremists “opportunities to gain access to battlefield experience and weapons”.
Cotton questioned Haines skeptically about the assessment, arguing that fentanyl deaths were deadlier in the United States. Haines responded that although fentanyl caused more deaths, the report was linked to terrorist threats.
“But in the context of terrorism, your conclusion is that racially and ethnically motivated violent extremists pose a deadlier threat to Americans than ISIS, Al-Qaeda, or Hezbollah?” Cotton asked.
Haines noted that earlier reports had made the same assessment, as racially and ethnically motivated extremists were also listed as the deadliest threat to American people and interests in the 2022 version of the Intelligence Community Report.
“It’s just about how many people, how many Americans are killed or injured as a result of attacks,” Haines said.
“I find that astonishing,” Cotton said at the end of his interrogation.
This story was updated with additional information on Wednesday.