by Risk calculated on 29/03/2023 10:19:00
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Year-over-year rent growth continues to slow
A brief excerpt:
Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these metrics since January 2015. Most of these metrics are through February 2023, except CoreLogic through January and Apartment List through March 2023 .
Note that new rental metrics (Zillow, Apartment List) fell early in the pandemic, while BLS metrics were flat. Then, new leases took off and BLS measures multiplied.
The CoreLogic metric is up 5.7% year-on-year in January, down from 6.4% in December and from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.
The Zillow metric is up 6.3% YoY in February, down from 6.9% YoY in January and down from a peak of 17.0% YoY in February 2022.br />
The ApartmentList metric is up 2.6% YoY in March, down from 3.0% in February and off a peak of 18.0% YoY in November 2021.
I suspect that year-over-year rent increases will slow further over the next few months as households slowly form and supply increases in the market. We may see lower year-over-year rents this year. As noted by ApartmentList analysts: “2023 could be the first time since the early stages of the pandemic that we see landlords fighting over tenants”.
There is a lot more in the article. You can register on https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/